Monitoring CSM in Northern Nigeria: A Logistic and OLS Regression Approach

Abstract

Abstract Cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM) remains a major public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. This study analyzed records of 390 suspected CSM patients (2020–2023) from Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Nigeria, using sex, age, and month as explana tory variables. Logistic regression and ordinary least square (OLS) models were fitted to identify epidemic patterns. Findings re veal that children under five are most vulnerable, with infections peaking during Harmattan months. Males are more prone than females. Logistic regression explained 4.3% of variation compared to 3.2% for OLS, indicating better predictive accuracy. Age was not significant, while sex and month showed significant negative effects. The study highlights key demographic and seasonal risk factors for CSM in Northwestern Nigeria.